The Srikrishna Committee (whose
much-awaited report was made public today), while presenting multiple options for handling the Telangana / United Andhra Pradesh dispute, preferred its last option - keeping the state united.
The Srikrishna Committee report suggested 6 possible solutions for the fracas the Telugu people have been involved for over a year now - including keeping the state as it is and creating a council for development of backward districts in Telangana, splitting the state into Telangana and Seemandhra (as it was pre-1956) with Hyderabad as Union Territory or a joint capital, and merging Telangana and Rayalaseema into Rayalatelangana and keeping Hyderabad as a part of it with Coastal Andhra as a separate state.
Basically, more or less things you would come up with yourself. So what was the Committee's contribution?
Perhaps the most important observation of the Srikrishna Committee appears to be that Telangana is not backward as made out by the proponents of a separate state. Since the Committee has spent close to a year meeting people and collecting data, and is seen as neutral, this will be a fact that is likely to be believed across the country. So what options does the Congress-led Union government have?
If it chooses to create a separate state, it will appear to be for no economic reasons. Now the last 3 states carved out in India - Jharkhand, Chattisgarh and Uttaranchal - were created purely since those areas were economically very backward, and at that time it was thought that making them separate states would improve their lot. Considering that those states have continued to suffer in the decade since their creation, and that looting both by the Naxalites and the rulers (e. g. Madhu Koda) themselves has actually made things worse, economic concerns would not be a persuasive reason to create new states anyway.
Given that even that premise does not exist, the government will be seen as doing it (it if creates a separate state) purely due to the pressure unleashed by proponents of a separate state. That will be a precedent - many down-and-out politicians in other states can whip up passions and ask for separate states, since they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Also, given that the only 3 small states created in several decades have seen more failure than success, and given that Telangana is Naxalite-prone, the government will risk sending a state that has been an economic engine for the country, and a city (Hyderabad) that has made a global mark, into a downward spiral.
Now the creation of Telangana, even if decided upon, will happen after some years. In the meantime, massive protests in Andhra and Rayalaseema, as seen in December 2009, will rock the state again. Seemandhra Congress MPs/MLAs will be forced to resign, and the Congress will almost certainly get wiped out from the area in the by-elections, primarily by Praja Rajyam and Jagan's party, which clearly stood for a united AP. The Congress will thus lose some precious Lok Sabha seats.
If the Congress chooses to stick with a united AP, it will see a revolt in Telangana by its own MPs and MLAs, who, to protect their own careers and constituents' support, need to align with the TRS. The by-elections caused by the resignations are likely to wipe the Congress out of Telangana. The Congress will lose some precious Lok Sabha seats in this scenario, too.
One of the options for the Congress would be to go for a separate state, let all hell break loose in Seemandhra, and then declare a constitutional crisis and impose President's rule in the state. It can then hope that things cool down in 6 months, and then bring the Assembly back into power. MLAs and ministers thankful to get power back again, will want to lie low. The Congress will then have a case in both regions - it will be seen as having the intention for the creation of a separate state, and also as having not done it.
Also read:
The Srikrishna Committee Report Recommendations For AP
The Srikrishna Committee Report: Explained