Sunday Chronicle :
Hyderabad 2050:
It’s New Year’s Eve and the Hussain Sagar Lake bed is teeming with people for a grand fireworks display. The gigantic Buddha looks on, a silent spectator perhaps reminiscing about the days not so long ago when there were gently lapping waves at his feet. But no one else remembers as bursts of crackers illuminate the sky. Suddenly the air is rent with a cacophony of the baying of dogs and the frantic chirping of birds. The sky changes colour menacingly.
The one-lakh crowd panics as big flakes of snow start falling… Hyderabad has just experienced its first snowfall in a trillion years! In the north, Delhi’s hit by a hurricane, Kashmir experiences a heat wave and raging rains lash Rajasthan. The warnings of global warming that environmentalists predicted are actually coming to pass. The results are cataclysmic. One-fifth of Bangladesh and a portion of West Bengal have been swallowed by the sea, with the entire deltaic region — home to rare flora and fauna — submerged. Atolls in the Pacific have disappeared.
Twenty years ago, the situation was dramatically opposite. The rivers were swollen almost 12 months a year due to the accelerated glacial melting. And now the great Himalayan glaciers have melted away...
India 2004…
The years 2003 and 2002 were declared the second warmest years on record by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Nine of the 10 warmest years of the 20th century have occurred since 1990. During the past century, temperatures have risen at a rate of nearly 0.6º C (1º F) per century, but the trend has been three times higher than that since1976. In states like Andhra Pradesh the temperature has remained above 45º C for the last two years.
In May 2003, these rose to 48.9º C, resulting in a number of deaths. Scientists attributed this to a long-term warming trend in Asia. The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) predicts that temperatures in India are likely to rise by 2º C to 3º C by the end of the century if greenhouse gas concentrations increase by even one per cent each year. Rupa Kumar Kolli, head of IITM Pune’s climatology and hydrometeorology division, says: “The increase could have serious consequences for crop growth and weather patterns…”
The ice caps of the world are expected to last only for the next two-three decades. And this will accelerate climatic changes. The Earth will become hotter still as the dark sea below the ice caps absorbs heat and the methane released from the ice increases the greenhouse effect. According to Dr Murari Lal, Chief Scientific Officer at IIT Delhi, India will face longer summers and shorter winters. By the end of this century, the average annual mean surface temperature in the sub-continent may rise by 6º C.
Socio-economic impacts of climate change will be felt in major cities, ports, and tourist resorts; fisheries; coastal agriculture and infrastructure development. International studies have projected the displacement of several million people from the region’s coastal zone in the event of a one-metre rise in sea level. “India is in for a serious ecological impact,” warns Lal. Studies suggest that the rise in temperature by 3º C would lead to a loss of about 15-20 per cent in wheat yield. Health impacts of global warming are disastrous for tropical and poor countries.
A rise in global temperature can adversely affect the vector pattern, thereby increasing the incidence of diseases. To combat the threats of global warming world leaders met in Rio in 1992 to demonstrate a global commitment towards the environment. In the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 industrialised countries committed themselves to reduce their annual aggregate emissions by 5.2 per cent from 1990 levels, by 2018-2012. The Protocol is the first legally-binding treaty aimed at cutting emissions.
Alarm Bells
India has a total of 89,451 animal species accounting for 7.31 per cent of the faunal species in the world and the flora accounts for 10.78 per cent of the global total.
* When the first forest policy was put into place in 1854, around 40 per cent of India had thick forests. By 1980, just 12 per cent of thick forest cover was left.
* Around 500 Indian bird species are captured for trade as pets, for food, medicine, sport, ornamental and even religious purposes. The illegal trade extends to Hill mynahs and parakeets, owls, munias, even crows and vultures.
* 62.4 per cent of the total waste generated in India is produced by the 23 metros alone.
* Water table levels are sinking at an alarming rate and nine Indian states are now running major water deficits. Surveys say that water table levels are dropping at the rate of 0.6 to 0.7 metres per year in Haryana and Punjab.
* Soil is an important non-renewable natural resource, and it takes up to 10,000 years to build enough soil to create fertile farmland